Optimism and pessimism are therefore judgemental biases that make for poor decisions, leading to worse outcomes and lower wellbeing. The point is that to make good decisions, accurate, unbiased information is required. These behavioural views of the merits of an optimistic or pessimistic mindset contrast with the perspective of mainstream economics according to which it is best to have realistic beliefs. Unrealistic optimists, by expecting a lot, are setting themselves up for large doses of destructive disappointment. Getting a pay raise of £5,000 may seem like a loss if you were expecting £10,000. In most cases, whether a gain or a loss is perceived, depends on what was expected. According to their concept of loss aversion, we feel twice as much pain from losses than we experience joy from equal gains.įor example, the pain of an unexpected loss of £5 is twice as strong as the joy of an unexpected gain of £5. This view receives implicit support from Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman and his late colleague, Amos Tversky. Having reckoned what to do in the worst possible circumstances, when better arise, as they may, life becomes child’s play. It is the only view of life in which you can never be disappointed. Pessimism is, in brief, playing the sure game. Despite the fact that expecting the worst can be extremely psychological painful, pessimists are, by their nature, fairly immune to disappointment.Īs the English writer Thomas Hardy noted:
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